Abdelmonem Fawzi
African youth have a chance to overcome challenges to employment. They can attain this chance if African governments encourage entrepreneurial projects.
Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Vera Songwe, said recently that Africa can generate 160 million jobs if it takes good care of the transport sector.
“This is how we create prosperity,” Songwe said.
Effective transport systems are key to Africa’s economic integration. Transport systems between countries are designed in such a way that production centres are linked with distribution hubs across the continent to create greater efficiencies.
Such integrated transport networks will allow African countries to compete effectively and, most importantly, tap into regional markets.
Productivity, growth and economic competitiveness are higher in countries with effective transport infrastructure services.
Effective and efficient transport infrastructure is a prerequisite of opening up production zones in landlocked countries. Reliable road and rail transport allows companies to import and export goods.
The impact of transport on economic development in Africa cannot be over emphasized. Inferior transport systems have negative knock-on effects on the economies of countries. The relationship between effective transport systems and economic development is shown by African economies that exhibit the lowest levels of productivity and are the least competitive.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to increase intra-African trade in transport services by nearly 50 per cent, according to recent estimates by ECA. The estimates were included in the ‘Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for Demand for Transport, Infrastructure and Services’, a document that was released by the commission during the fifth African Business Forum.
According to the estimates, with the AfCFTA in absolute terms, over 25 per cent of intra-African trade gains in services would go to transport alone.
Nearly 40 per cent of the increase in Africa’s services production would be in transport, they said.
Research conducted by experts in ECA’s Energy, Infrastructure and Services Section highlights the AfCFTA’s investment opportunity in the transport sector.
Songwe expected the AfCFTA to significantly increase traffic flows on all transport modes: road, rail, maritime, and air.
“Nevertheless, such gains will only be optimized if the AfCFTA is accompanied by the implementation of regional infrastructure projects,” Robert Lisinge, the chief of ECA’s Energy, Infrastructure and Services Section, said.
He added that roads currently carry the lion’s share of freight in Africa, pointing out that the AfCFTA provides an opportunity to build Africa’s railway network.
“It would increase intra-Africa freight demand by 28 per cent,” Lisinge said. “Demand for maritime freight will increase the most.”
According to the research findings, the AfCFTA requires 1,844,000 trucks for bulk cargo and 248,000 trucks for container cargo by 2030.
This will increase to 1,945,000 and 268,000 trucks respectively, if planned infrastructure projects are also implemented.
The largest demand for trucks to support the AfCFTA will be within West Africa (39 per cent), demand from western to southern Africa will be 19.8 per cent and from southern Africa to western Africa by 9.9 per cent.
The key questions considered for research were how will implementation of the AfCFTA affect demand for transport infrastructure and services?
What would be the demand for different modes of transport and what are the implications for investment in infrastructure development?
What would be the infrastructure and equipment needs for different transport modes?
Lisinge noted that the AfCFTA and Africa’s transport infrastructure programmes are intrinsically linked and should be implemented simultaneously.
He said the Trans-African Highways (TAH) and Programme for Infrastructure Development (PIDA) and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) should be prioritised at the same level with the AfCFTA.
“Africa’s road network is inadequate, but implementing planned projects will significantly increase its size,” Lisinge said. “Africa needs to upgrade sections of its roads to cope with the increased freight generated by the AfCFTA.
He said freight traffic growth is envisaged to be higher in some sections of Africa’s road network than continent-wide average growth.
Implementing the AfCFTA will double road freight from 201 to 403 million tonnes.
Implementing TAH and PIDA projects, Lisinge said, increases the capacity of transport networks to accommodate freight growth.
Reaping the huge benefits of the AfCFTA to the transport sector requires implementing regional infrastructure and services programmes.
On the rail transport, ECA estimates show that Africa’s rail network is inadequate, but implementing PIDA and other planned projects will significantly increase its size.
Implementing planned projects will increase the network by almost 26,500km.
The AfCFTA requires 97,614 wagons for bulk cargo and 20,668 wagons for container cargo by 2030. This will increase to 132,857 and 36,482 wagons respectively, if planned infrastructure projects are also implemented.
Implementing the AfCFTA would double maritime freight from 58 to 131.5 million tonnes.
Africa’s maritime network includes 142 links that connect 65 ports and accounts for 22.1 per cent of intra-African freight transport.
This share will increase by 0.6 per cent to 22.7 per cent, if both the AfCFTA and planned infrastructure projects are implemented.
The AfCFTA requires 126 vessels for bulk cargo and 15 vessels for container cargo by 2030. This will come down to 121 and 14 vessels respectively, if the planned infrastructure projects are also implemented.
The continent’s air transport network includes a total of 14,762 air routes that connect 121 airports.
Implementing the AfCFTA would double the number of tonnes transported by air from 2.3 to 4.5 million.
In 2019, air accounted for only 0.9 per cent of intra-Africa freight transport.
Implementing the AfCFTA will double airfreight from 2.3 to 4.5 million tonnes. Air traffic is therefore expected to double in 2030 compared to 2019.
I will never stop repeating that when transport systems are efficient, they will provide provide economic and social opportunities and benefits that result in positive multiplier effects, such as better accessibility to markets, employment, and additional investments.
When transport systems are deficient in terms of capacity or reliability, they can have an economic cost, such as reduced or missed opportunities and lower quality of life.
Transport carries an important social and environmental load, which cannot be neglected.
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