GENEVA (Reuters) – The United Nations weather agency on Tuesday forecast a moderate or possibly strong El Niño that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO said warm ocean waters were fueling El Niño’s development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely El Nino will continue until November.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record, Saulo added. A shift has been observed in the Equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly from late April to mid-May, suggesting El Niño conditions were developing, the WMO said.
The agency said it has observed unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific with temperatures exceeding 6°Celsius above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing increased rainfall to southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while causing drought in Australia, central America, Indonesia, and sections of southern Asia.
It can also have a warming effect on the global climate, and fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the WMO said.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres, urging a shift away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy.
While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events, it can make associated impacts such as extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall worse, according to the WMO.
