Most of those leaders have at some point been targets of Trump’s trade threats, diplomatic pressure or public criticism, with the notable exception of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whom he is known to admire.
Neither Trump’s declining approval ratings nor the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his blanket tariffs is expected to soften his approach towards allies.
European leaders, in particular, have learned through disputes over Greenland, trade and the Iran conflict “to hope for the best but to expect the worst”, Fix said.
The US has also informed European partners of plans to significantly reduce the number of aircraft and warships committed to Nato operations in Europe, according to a New York Times report.
“I don’t think you’re going to see a weakened president,” Jackson James, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the US, told AFP.
“I think he’s going to go over there and do what he always does, which is just try to bully his way through these very, very complicated issues and try to get the American agenda, as he sees it, fulfilled.”
Trump “says he doesn’t like these multilateral meetings”, but “cannot bear for an assembly of world leaders to meet and he not being there”, said Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“So he shows up at these things and he leaves early,” Cha said, referring to Trump’s behaviour at previous summits.
French President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly hoping to persuade Trump to stay for a dinner at Versailles on Wednesday evening, appealing to the US leader’s fondness for grandeur and ceremony.
France has already adjusted the summit dates so they do not clash with Trump’s 80th birthday celebrations or a mixed martial arts event he is due to host at the White House.
Some analysts also see the absence of South Africa from the summit guest list as a gesture towards Washington.
Paris has denied any pressure to withdraw an invitation to South Africa, which Trump has repeatedly accused – without evidence – of discriminating against its white population.
Analysts say one topic likely to attract Trump’s attention is trade relations with China.
The balance of power has also evolved on the issue of Ukraine, where Europe is no longer viewed as being as dependent on Washington as it was a year ago.
In 2025, “Europeans just sort of agreed that they had to bend the knee to Trump because of Ukraine” and its need for US military support, said Max Bergmann, a Europe expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“But now we’re just in a different dynamic where Ukraine is not as dependent on the United States.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to participate in discussions in Evian, setting the stage for another potentially high-stakes encounter with Trump.
