About 50 million people are likely to be pushed into acute hunger before the end of next year by the rapidly developing El Niño weather system, according to forecasting.
This is in addition to the hundreds of millions of people already facing dangerous levels of hunger, owing to years of drought in parts of Africa and pressure on food prices from the war in Iran.
Even if the forecast El Niño is less strong than some models predict, it will tip many countries over the edge, adding more than a fifth to the 225 million people in 45 countries currently in acute food insecurity, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Wednesday.
Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are likely to be worst affected, according to the analysis.
In south and south-east Asia there is likely to be less rainfall than usual, which would cause serious problems for agriculture and farmers.
This year’s El Niño – a weather system that develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean and brings changes to rainfall patterns around the world – is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years.
Some are calling it a “super El Niño”, though this term is not officially recognised.
What is certain is that its impacts and strength are being strongly affected by the climate crisis. Earlier this year, experts said a strong El Niño could work in tandem with global heating to deliver the hottest year on record either this year or, more likely, in 2027.
Private sector forecasters have already warned of the impact of the gathering El Niño on global food prices, but the report published by the WFP is the first to look closely at global hunger.
The WFP said it was hoping to reduce the effects of the extreme weather through early warning systems and “anticipatory” relief efforts, for which at least $80m (£60m) is budgeted.
