Right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella received a surge in voter support in the final week leading up to the first round of Colombia’s presidential election, nearly tying with leftist Ivan Cepeda, whom the latest poll predicts he would defeat in a runoff.
An AtlasIntel poll released on Saturday, the last to be issued before the May 31 vote, put Cepeda – the ruling party’s candidate – in the lead with 38.7% of the vote, followed by businessman De La Espriella with 37.3%.
However, the poll estimated that in a potential runoff vote between the two, De La Espriella would receive 50% of the vote and Cepeda just 41.3%.
The survey was based on 4,531 interviews conducted between May 18 and 21. With one week to go until the election, De La Espriella surged by 4 percentage points from AtlasIntel’s last poll, while Cepeda gained 1 percentage point.
Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing Centro Democratico Party, trailed with 14.3% of voter intention, down by just over 2 percentage points. The poll predicted she would nevertheless beat Cepeda in a runoff with 44.6% to 41.5%.
Cepeda has pledged to continue the path set by current President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first-ever leftist president, by deepening social reforms to reduce inequality and pursuing peace talks with illegal armed groups.
De La Espriella has vowed to end negotiations and take a tough stance on crime and drug trafficking, offer incentives for private investors and entrepreneurs and boost the country’s mining and energy sectors.
Valencia promised to expand the size of the armed forces and national police, launch an offensive against criminal gangs and guerrillas, promote businesses and cut taxes.
The opposition’s campaign promises would mark an about-turn from the current administration of Petro, a former M19 rebel who stopped granting new oil and gas exploration contracts in a bid to move the country toward more sustainable energy sources.
His four-year term ends in August. If no candidate wins more than half the valid votes of the 41 million-strong electorate, a runoff between the two top candidates will be held on June 21.
