LONDON – Two games, two wins, one huge north London party. It sounds such a simple scenario for Arsenal as they close in on their first Premier League title for 22 years.
Had Mikel Arteta been told last August a win at home to relegated Burnley then another one at a Crystal Palace side with their gaze fixed on a first-ever European final would seal the deal, he would have signed instantly.
Manchester City may have beaten Palace 3-0 on Wednesday to keep Arsenal honest but the fact remains that only a horrendous stumble from Arsenal will stop them finally delivering after three successive runner-up finishes.
They have 79 points from 36 games with City, who are in the FA Cup final against Chelsea on Saturday, on 77.
A win, preferably a commanding one against Burnley would mean City have to win at Bournemouth next Tuesday just to take the race to the wire next Sunday when they host Aston Villa.
The Premier League’s data analysts Opta rate Arsenal’s chance of winning the title at 86%.
But titles are won on the field, not on spreadsheets and the next week might feel like an awfully long one for Arsenal fans.
They were put through a gut-wrenching afternoon at relegation-threatened West Ham United last weekend as Arsenal scraped a 1-0 win that kept their destiny in their own hands.
Had Callum Wilson’s stoppage-time goal for West Ham counted, rather than being ruled out after a VAR intervention, the old fears would have resurfaced.
While Burnley at home looks a far less onerous task than a derby at a West Ham side fighting for their top-flight survival, Arsenal will be taking nothing for granted.
Burnley might be down and without a manager after Scott Parker’s exit, but there are rarely any free passes in the Premier League and Arsenal will need to be laser-focused.
City’s goal difference is one better than Arsenal’s after Wednesday and there is still a scenario where that could decide the title. Arteta is not getting bogged down in maths though.
“We’re not thinking about that type of thing, the only focus is on Burnley and winning that game, that’s the thing that we can control,” Arteta said on Thursday.
“You have to earn the right to win the game. Obviously, you can make a difference with more goals; that’s even better.
“But we’re all playing very tough matches. We had a tough match against West Ham and we managed to win it.”
Arsenal will be without Ben White who injured his knee at West Ham but Arteta is hopeful that Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori might be available.
While the scrap for European qualifying places continues this Sunday with the likes of Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford and Everton all with chances to enhance their claims, all eyes will be on the relegation battle.
West Ham’s misery at being denied a point against Arsenal last week was eased somewhat by Tottenham Hotspur drawing 1-1 with Leeds United on Monday.
That left West Ham two points behind 17th-placed Tottenham but they have the chance to heap massive pressure on their London rivals by winning at Newcastle United on Sunday.
Should West Ham achieve that, Tottenham would find themselves back in the bottom three ahead of their visit to Chelsea on Tuesday — a fixture that rarely ends well for Spurs.
“We have to finish in the best way possible,” Tottenham defender Pedro Porro said. “Its true that right now we’re two points above (West Ham), and they play before us. Now anything goes. We have to consider everything.
“That’s the reality, and everything counts.”
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