The Iran war has driven global oil prices above $100 per barrel in recent days, sending shock-waves through African economies.
Most countries on the continent import the petroleum products they consume, leaving them highly exposed to supply disruptions and sudden price hikes.
As Brent crude briefly climbed to about $119 per barrel, inflation expectations rose, while transport and electricity costs increased, threatening the household purchasing power in import-dependent nations.
South Africa illustrates the scale of the challenge. The country’s central bank has moved to revise its risk scenarios ahead of the next policy meeting as global oil markets grow increasingly volatile.
Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the South African Reserve Bank, told Reuters that earlier adverse scenarios, based on an average oil price of $75 per barrel and a rand of 18.50 to the dollar, no longer reflect current conditions.
With oil prices now hovering above $90, policymakers expect higher fuel and gas costs to feed into inflation in the coming months, despite recent economic reforms.
Import-dependent economies, such as Kenya, Ghana, Ethiopia, Morocco and Senegal, are even more vulnerable.
In Kenya, petroleum imports accounted for more than a quarter of total import spending in 2025.
Higher fuel prices quickly translate into rising transport costs, more expensive electricity generation and increased food prices, placing additional pressure on already strained household budgets.
Higher fuel import bills also put pressure on African currencies and widen fiscal deficits in several debt-burdened economies.
Countries operating under IMF programmes face further challenges as rising energy import costs drain limited foreign-exchange reserves.
Analysts warn that fragile economies, including Sudan, Lesotho, Zimbabwe and the Central African Republic, remain particularly exposed to prolonged price shocks.
At the same time, the crisis could benefit several African oil exporters. Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea stand to gain from higher prices.
Nigeria exports roughly 1.3 million barrels per day, meaning government revenues increase significantly when prices exceed $100 per barrel.
Libya, which holds Africa’s largest proven reserves at around 48 billion barrels, could also see stronger revenues if production remains stable.
Previous oil price surges have strengthened fiscal balances and foreign-currency reserves for these exporters, highlighting the widening economic divide between energy producers and importers across the continent.
The current crisis underscores the structural vulnerability of many African economies to global energy shocks.
Much of the continent remains dependent on imported refined petroleum products, leaving it highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions.
While exporters may enjoy temporary revenue gains, most African countries face rising living costs, currency pressure and growing economic uncertainty.
The situation renews calls for energy diversification, stronger regional infrastructure and long-term strategies to reduce reliance on imported fuel.
