Global oil supply will not meet total demand this year as the Iran war wreaks havoc on Middle East oil production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said in its monthly oil market report.
“With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million (barrels per day) of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock,” the agency said.
Its base-case forecast is for a gradual resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz from the third quarter onwards, it said.
The IEA forecasts imply that supply will come in 1.78 million bpd below total demand in 2026, in contrast to a 410,000 bpd surplus projected in last month’s report and a close to 4 million bpd surplus in its December report.
