Deep rifts over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are likely to derail unified actions or statements at a two-day meeting of foreign ministers from the world’s 20 largest economies in Atlanta, experts and diplomats said.
The US, which holds the rotating presidency of the G20 this year, has sought to focus its allies on trade imbalances while building a coalition to counter China’s control of critical minerals, but the wars — and their economic impact — remain the top concern for many G20 members.
The US has not invited South Africa to the ministerial, which takes place from October 30 to 31, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is attending, adding to tensions. Even the traditional G20 family photo has caused some headaches, with some European officials now suggesting two separate pictures — one with Lavrov, one without.
With G20 members Russia, China and many middle powers such as Brazil and India trying to navigate US-China strategic competition, you have “much more of a split than we’ve ever had,” said Heidi Crebo-Rediker, who was chief economist at the State Department during the Obama administration.
Over the past decade or so, G7 countries would at least “have agreed a co-ordinated platform before they came to the G20, but now we don’t even really have that,” she added.
A State Department official told reporters on Thursday the Atlanta meeting would focus on energy and supply chain challenges, seen as crucial to the development of AI. The official said four G20 ministerial-level meetings held this year had achieved some consensus, but more work was needed before the December 14 to 16 leaders’ summit in Miami.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is hosting the gathering, has championed the Pax Silica initiative, aimed at uniting G20 countries concerned about China’s dominance in rare earths and other critical minerals.
But any movement on that front will probably come afterwards, experts said, pointing to a US-led statement on excess industrial capacity that some G20 trade ministers signed after the group failed to reach consensus.
“It’s going to be very hard to have complete agreement on any of the larger strategic questions that you would ordinarily have on the agenda,” Crebo-Rediker said.
Elaine Dezenski, a former US official who heads the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank, said such statements by ad hoc groups could prove the way forward.
“The Atlanta meeting takes place within an environment of widening disagreement over the global economic order, and the right test is whether the US can build cooperation with partners when all-member consensus appears to be out of reach,” she told reporters this week. She noted the Quad — a security grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia — would also meet in Atlanta in coming days.
US President Donald Trump’s recent decisions on Russia, including a deal to buy diesel and waiving some sanctions, could also weigh on discussions, along with Ukraine’s problems with its Starshield satellite services.
“If it’s not brought up, it’s certainly the elephant in the room that the US — and Trump in particular — has taken a very solid stance together with (Russian President) Vladimir Putin and against Ukraine,” Crebo-Rediker said.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she would call for increased support for Ukraine, while pushing for progress on accountability measures through the Special Tribunal and Claims Commission.
Some countries may seek to avoid conflict, including Canada, Mexico, India and others still negotiating trade agreements with the US, said one G20 diplomat who declined to be named. “Everyone is trying to keep a low profile.”
The meetings take place a day after Commerce Department data showed the US economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the third quarter, buoyed by AI investment despite higher oil prices from the war in the Middle East, even as other countries face slower growth or even contractions.
They also fall just days before the November 3 midterm elections, which polls indicate could leave Trump without majorities in either house of Congress, and amid reports the US might launch fresh attacks on Iran.
Although Ukraine has not been invited to join the G20 ministers in Atlanta, Trump is also pushing hard for a ceasefire in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia, Ukraine and the US are expected to hold technical-level trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi next month.
