ROME – Giorgia Meloni’s defeat in a justice reform referendum has thrust the Italian leader into the toughest phase of her premiership, with her authority weakened, her reform programme in tatters and no easy way to regain the initiative.
The prime minister’s right-wing coalition suffered a resounding loss in the March 22-23 vote, puncturing the aura of political invincibility she has cultivated since taking office in 2022.
As the result came in, Meloni made clear she had no plans to resign, but none of her options looks attractive, political analysts say.
Governing as if nothing has changed risks leaving her a lame-duck prime minister, with the anaemic economy under growing strain and her closeness to U.S. President Donald Trump seen by pollsters as an increasing liability.
Alternatively, she could seek to reshape the electoral law to try to boost her chances of winning the next general election, due in 2027, but would open herself to charges of upending the rules to suit her political interests.
A third option could be to gamble on forcing an early ballot this spring before the full impact of the Iran war hits Italy’s already fragile economy, hoping to catch the fragmented centre-left opposition unprepared.
“It’s clear that what’s at stake is the end of the legislature. Even the date of the next election is uncertain,” said Nicola Lupo, director of the Centre for Parliamentary Studies at Rome’s Luiss University.
For all the damage, the referendum did not amount to a blanket rejection of Meloni, with 37% of those who voted “No” telling Youtrend pollsters she should remain in office.
“This wasn’t an opposition victory so much as a victory for the judiciary,” said Massimiliano Panarari, a political analyst at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia.
The centre-left opposition hailed Monday’s result as evidence the political cycle was turning its way, but its two main components, the Democratic Party and 5-Star Movement, remain deeply divided over key issues, including foreign policy.
These splits could tempt Meloni to resign shortly and force a snap election, Luiss’ Lupo said, adding that the government had pushed for a swift referendum in March to have the eventual option of holding a pre-summer vote.
“Meloni knows the next budget won’t allow for generous spending, so she might say it would be better to go to elections now and not give the opposition time to organise,” he said.
