Voters in Canada’s oil-rich Alberta province will decide Monday whether to begin a process that could lead to independence, testing national unity as US President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have rallied Canadians around their country.
Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, home to most of Canada’s proven oil reserves — the fourth largest in the world — will decide whether to remain a province or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.
More than 1.35 million Albertans, or 43% of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots ahead of the referendum, far exceeding the 810,000 who voted early in the 2023 provincial election. Polls on Monday will be open from 9am until 8pm, with results on the independence question expected in the hours after voting closes.
But even if Albertans reject the proposal, separatist leaders say the movement that has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics is not going away.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged Albertans not to take the outcome for granted and asked for a decisive result as he wrapped up two days of campaigning in his home province.
“Vote like Canada’s future depends on it because it does,” Carney told a pro-Canada rally Friday in Edmonton, where he grew up.
The vote also comes as Alberta reels from a deadly weekend fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright that killed four service members and injured 39 people, including 19 critically, during military training. Carney called it one of the worst peacetime tragedies for Canada’s military on domestic soil and ordered flags lowered to half-staff nationwide.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite opposing independence, recently cited a poll showing just 22% support for separation, a figure she said was still too high.
