The closure of the airspace of several Middle Eastern states in the wake of the eruption of the US-Israeli war against Iran has caused one of the sharpest disruptions to global aviation since the Covid-19 pandemic.
African economies are among the most affected, with key transit hubs, such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, temporarily shutting down, which is grounding thousands of flights.
According to leading providers of aviation data, Cirium and FlightAware, nearly 4,000 flights were scheduled to land in the region in a single day, underscoring the scale of disruption.
Countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, and Namibia rely heavily on Gulf carriers to transport tourists and cargo.
The suspension of daily services by Gulf Airways has left hotels with widespread cancellations, while high-value agricultural exports have been delayed.
In Nairobi and Mombasa alone, airlines, serving around 90,000 passengers daily, were unable to operate, threatening employment in tourism, transport, and related sectors.
South Africa has also been significantly affected. Airports’ Company, South Africa, confirmed disruptions to UAE-linked routes, while thousands of South Africans remain stranded.
Around 18,000 citizens are registered in the UAE, highlighting both the human and economic dimensions of the crisis.
South African Tourism, the official national marketing agency of the South African government, is coordinating closely with airlines and authorities to manage the fallout and assist travellers.
Leading economist, Rashad Abdo, highlighted the economic impacts of regional airspace closures.
“Disruptions push up oil and gas prices, increasing production costs and ultimately inflating final prices,” professor Abdo, also a professor of economics at Helwan University, told The Egyptian Gazette.
“For African economies already facing currency pressures and imported inflation, higher energy costs quickly translate into broader price increases,” he added.
He pointed to the impact from airspace closures on global trade and investment. Increased project costs, he said, affect investment flows, as investments always require stability and security.
Prolonged instability in key transit corridors risks delaying investment decisions and raising financing costs, particularly for economies seeking foreign capital, other economists said.
Tourism, a major revenue source for several African nations, naturally declines under these conditions, reducing foreign currency inflows and affecting airfare.
Longer rerouting increases fuel consumption and operational expenses, likely driving ticket prices higher and further straining travel-dependent sectors, economists say.
To reduce risks, professor Abdo recommends forward-looking strategies, including future studies to prevent escalation, increasing stockpiles and reserves, and forming expert teams to monitor developments in real time and take necessary precautions.
