China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 but seeks to take control of the self-ruled island without force, said an annual US intelligence report, which drew ire from Beijing on Thursday.
China claims Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to seize the island, stepping up military pressure and drills in recent years.
The intelligence community “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” said its Annual Threat Assessment report on Wednesday.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded on Thursday that “the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair” and urged the United States to “speak and act cautiously” on island.
“The US should… correct their understanding of China, and stop hyping up the China threat theory,” he told a press conference, in response to a question about the report.
Last year US officials at the Department of Defence had flagged 2027 as a possible timeline for an attack.
But the intelligence community has now offered a more measured analysis of the situation.
“In 2026, Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict,” the report said.
But it cautioned that Chinese officials recognise that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan “would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of US intervention.”
The report’s authors said China publicly insists “unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ‘national rejuvenation’ by 2049”, a much longer potential timeline to achieve its goals.
Beijing would consider a range of factors in any decision to invade Taiwan, it said, including its military readiness, the island’s politics and whether or not Washington would intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.
Washington does not officially recognise Taiwan, but is the island territory’s main military backer—although the tone of that support has softened slightly under US President Donald Trump.
