Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz is throttling the world’s energy supplies and inflicting global economic pain, but the struggles of the Islamic Republic’s own economy are testing its ability to withstand the war and defy Washington’s demands.
Iranians have been hit by spiraling prices for food, medicine and other goods. At the same time, the country has seen mass job losses and business closures caused by strike damage to key industries and the government’s monthslong shutdown of the internet.
The economic cost of the war and the US naval blockade “has been very substantial and unprecedented for Iran,” said Hadi Kahalzadeh, an Iranian economist and research fellow at Brandeis University.
But Iran has withstood decades of economic pressure and sanctions and its capacity to adapt has not been dismantled, Kahalzadeh said.
“Iran can probably avoid a complete economic collapse or total shortage of essential goods, but at a very high cost,” he said. “The main cost will be passed to ordinary Iranians through higher inflation, more poverty, weaker services and a much harder daily life.”
The International Monetary Fund has predicted the Iranian economy will shrink by about 6 percentage points in the next year. Iran’s official statistics center reported in mid-April that annual inflation was 53.7%, while inflation for food breached 115% compared with the same period last year.
Meanwhile, Iran’s rial currency has lost over half its value in the past year, falling to a record low of 1.9 million to the dollar at the end of last month. The economic woes helped fuel massive protests that spread across the country in January.
Parked beneath an overpass in central Tehran, 56-year-old Hossein Farmani was idling alongside other taxi drivers waiting for customers. He popped open the trunk of his car to take out a kettle before pouring himself a glass of tea. He reflected on the wild price increases in the past year. Alongside items such as milk, the price of tea has risen over 50% since the war began.
“If things keep heading in this direction, we’re going to suffer a lot more,” Farmani said.
Prices had already climbed steadily over the past two years, but an Associated Press tour of grocery stores in Tehran found large jumps from February, before the war began: Chicken and lamb were up 45%, rice 31% and eggs 60%.
Iranian authorities have announced measures to help Iranians bear the crippling prices. But many of these policies — including a 60% hike in the minimum wage and coupon programs for essential goods — are stoking inflation, Taymur Rahmani, an economist at the University of Tehran, wrote recently in a leading business newspaper, Dunya-ye Eqtesad.
Since the war began, free bus and metro fares in the capital are also not helping the city’s struggling taxi drivers.
Another driver waiting nearby, Mohammad Deljoo, 73, said he was supporting his family of two children on a daily income of $4. He said there was no shortage of goods in shops and instead blamed the problem on “price gouging.”
“We only buy what’s absolutely necessary, things like bread and potatoes. Even eggs have become too expensive for us,” Deljoo said. He said the price for tires and other car parts rose fivefold in less than a year.
“One price today, another tomorrow. How is that possible?” he said.
Amid job losses, many Iranians are scrambling to find new ways to make money. Ali Asghar Nahardani, 32, said the ride-hailing app he works for had not paid him in over a month. He turned to street vending to cover his living expenses.
“We’re just living day by day, trying to get through this situation while the war conditions continue,” he said.
