FRANKFURT, Germany – Europe could face a severe natural gas shortage next year and needs to act now to reduce use, the International Energy Agency said in a report recently, warning against complacency in an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine after countries were able to build up storage of the fuel to heat homes and generate electricity this winter.
The IEA said Europe benefited from some Russian gas supplies over the summer and sharply reduced competition from China for scarce shiploads of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, and those factors could be one-offs, the Paris-based organization said. Along with mild weather, that has pushed down natural gas prices from August highs.
“With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe´s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said according to AP.
“This is why governments need to be taking immediate action to speed up improvements in energy efficiency and accelerate the deployment of renewables and heat pumps – and other steps to structurally reduce gas demand.”
The cutoff of most Russian pipeline gas because of the war in Ukraine has sparked a winter energy crisis in Europe. Russian deliveries were close to normal for the first half of the year. The country has since turned off all but a trickle of gas, and even that could be unavailable next year.
On top of that, if China’s imports of LNG recover to 2021 levels, that could consume over 85% of the expected increase in global supply. China’s economy has been weakening due in part to strict COVID-19 restrictions.
That all means Europe could face a shortfall of 30 billion cubic meters of gas next summer, the key period for filling supplies ahead of the winter heating season, when there is stronger demand for the fuel. The figure represents almost half the gas required to fill storage facilities in Europe to 95% capacity before the 2023-2024 winter starts.
Discussion about this post