US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, according to two US officials.
The sources said sufficient forces are now deployed in the region. The scope of new operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted. “It will be a big effort,” one official told CNN.
The view was echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions, some of whom said it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm elections.
US officials acknowledge challenges, noting Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, making it harder to destroy all intended targets. However, US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list that includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.
Officials say Trump has not made up his mind but appears to be leaning towards ordering major action, though he has previously backed off at the last moment. The White House declined to comment. A senior Pentagon official said the department is a planning organization that develops and executes military options ordered by the president.
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran and Houthi rebels are taking the possibility of renewed attacks by the US and potentially Israel very seriously. If new operations are launched, Tehran and the Houthis would likely retaliate immediately by targeting American personnel and facilities around the region and potentially beyond.
An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio said US intelligence found that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel” and plotting efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.”
US officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive attacks at this point but would respond if Iran is targeted first. The US is expected to continue quietly pulling personnel from embassies across the Middle East, with the embassy in Riyadh under ordered departure and others expected to receive similar directives.
Nonessential US military personnel expected to deploy to the region as part of the next rotation have been told they are no longer being sent.
