Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in a tight runoff vote that could shift Latin America’s largest nation sharply rightward, bringing it closer to the United States as part of a broader conservative shift across the region.
The runoff pits leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio scored a major upset at the start of the month by defying pollsters to lead voting in the first round.
A victory for Bolsonaro, 45, would extend a wave of right-wing victories for Latin American candidates friendly to US President Donald Trump, while a fourth mandate for Lula would be a disappointment in Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security.
The election race has been dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US meddling, which Washington denies. It has also been coloured by fallout from Jair Bolsonaro’s 2025 conviction for plotting a 2022 coup, with Flavio pledging to free his father if he is elected.
Trump has called the case a “witch hunt” and imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Brazil in 2025, in a decision explicitly linked to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial.
While many of those were later watered down, Trump unleashed new levies against Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices.
Lula has cast the Trump administration’s proximity to the Bolsonaro clan as part of an attempt to sway the election, while labeling tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying.
On economic issues, despite falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over an electorate grappling with high living costs and heavy household debt. Endemic gang violence also weighs on voters’ minds.
