Emerging outlines of a deal between Washington and Tehran to end their war contain a stinging paradox: sweeteners to coax Iran into compliance may strengthen an adversarial force that the US and its Western allies consider a terrorist organisation.
For years, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards thrived in the shadow of sanctions, building a sprawling commercial empire stretching from oil and construction to shipping, telecommunications and ports.
Now, as Tehran and Washington prepare for talks on a deal to end the war that could unlock billions of dollars for Iran and reopen its economy to global investment, the elite force is poised to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Four senior Iranian sources described how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was uniquely placed to capture a big chunk of any financial rewards that would accrue from sanctions relief, renewed oil exports and foreign investment.
Their central role may also prove to be one of the many obstacles to a deal: with the Guards so firmly enmeshed in Iranian business, their terrorism designation could significantly complicate efforts to free the economy from sanctions.
Founded by Iran’s late revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Guards prospered under his successor Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gaining political power as they spearheaded efforts to project power across the Middle East and suppress dissent at home.
Since the war began on February 28 with strikes that killed Khamenei, the Guards have only expanded their power internally, helping to install his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader. They have signalled support for the deal to end the war.
One of the senior sources described the Guards as the real winners of the war, saying that, having secured the survival of Iran’s Islamic system, they were best placed to benefit from any lifting of sanctions – having already run most of Iran’s sanctions-busting operations over recent decades.
A spokesperson for the Guards declined to comment.
The interim deal announced this week will allow waivers on sanctioned oil sales while any more comprehensive agreement struck in the coming period could lift all other sanctions and give Iran access to a $300-billion reconstruction fund.
The IRGC does not publish financial data, but any efforts to revive the economy will expand its considerable financial reach, a second senior source said, pointing to existing multibillion-dollar trade networks, oil activities, shipping operations and construction businesses.
The IRGC’s engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbia, oversees hundreds of affiliated companies operating across major infrastructure and energy projects, and with involvement in telecommunications, car making, tourism and logistics, according to official statements and public records.
