Convoluted hopes

The United Nations has offered a glimmer of optimism for the planet with its recent population projections, suggesting that the global population will peak earlier and at a lower level than previously anticipated.

According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the world’s population is expected to grow by over 2 billion in the coming decades, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before declining to approximately 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

While this report offers a hopeful sign, it also underscores the complexities and challenges that remain, particularly for less developed nations.

The anticipated earlier peak is attributed to declining fertility rates in many of the world’s largest countries.

For instance, China’s population is projected to drop dramatically from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million by 2100.

Globally, women are having an average of one fewer child than they did in 1990, and in more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below the replacement level of 2.1. This demographic shift is significant as it suggests reduced environmental pressures due to lower aggregate consumption.

However, the optimism is tempered by the uneven nature of these trends.  While 63 countries, including China; Germany; Japan, and Russia, have already reached their population peaks, another 48 countries are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054.  The remaining 126 countries, many of which among the world’s poorest, will continue to see population increases well into the second half of the century.

For nine countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, and Nigeria, the populations are expected to double between 2024 and 2054. This rapid growth poses significant challenges, especially in the face of climate change and resource scarcity.

The demographic divide highlighted by the UN report points to a growing disparity between regions.

While some nations grapple with aging populations and declining birth rates, others face the pressures of rapid population growth.

In Africa, for example, high reproductive rates are still maintained and the continent is likely to witness severe increases in population, worsening the problems related to food security, health, and education.

Climate change compounds these challenges. As populations grow, especially in regions already vulnerable to environmental degradation, the strain on natural resources will intensify. The report calls for concerted efforts to reduce individual environmental impacts and promote sustainable practices. This includes improving agricultural productivity, particularly in Africa, where persistent drought and shrinking farmland are already significant issues. Innovations in agricultural technology and practices will be required to feed the world’s growing population.

The report also emphasises the need for comprehensive population data to inform policy and planning. Accurate demographic data is important for monitoring progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and to let the needs of all populations, particularly the most vulnerable, be known.

UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, underscored the importance of counting everyone, stating that “everyone counts.”

This is particularly relevant in addressing issues of underrepresentation and ensuring that diverse populations are included in policy decisions.

The UN report offers a more hopeful outlook on global population growth. However, it also highlights the need for continually focusing on environmental impacts, demographic disparities, and inclusive development strategies.

Acknowledging such challenges and working collaboratively to face them can be the only safe route through this changing landscape to a better, more sustainable future for all.