Seven weeks of war have failed to topple Iran’s theocratic rulers or force them to meet all of President Donald Trump’s demands, but for US adversaries and allies it has cast a spotlight on one of his central vulnerabilities: economic pressure.
Even with Iran’s announcement on Friday that it was reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, the Middle East crisis has revealed the limits of Trump’s willingness to tolerate domestic economic pain.
Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran on 28 February based on what he said were imminent security threats, especially over its nuclear programme. But now, with US petrol prices high, inflation rising and his approval ratings down, Trump is racing to secure a diplomatic deal that could stem the fallout at home.
Iran has taken a beating militarily, but demonstrated it can exact economic costs that Trump and his aides underestimated, unleashing the worst-ever global energy shock, analysts say.
Trump has often publicly shrugged off domestic economic concerns driven by the war.
But he can hardly ignore that though the US does not depend on the one-fifth of global oil shipments that were effectively blocked by Iran’s chokehold on the strait, surging energy costs have hit US consumers. The International Monetary Fund’s warning of a risk of global recession adds to the gloom.
Pressure for a way out of the unpopular war has mounted as Trump’s fellow Republicans defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections.
None of this has been lost on Iran’s leaders, who have used their grip on the strait to push Trump’s team to the negotiating table.
Analysts say US rivals China and Russia may draw their own lesson: while Trump has shown an appetite for military force in his second term, he looks for a diplomatic off-ramp as soon as the economic heat becomes uncomfortable at home.
“Trump is feeling the economic pinch, which is his Achilles heel in this war of choice,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration who heads the Global Situation Room strategic consultancy.
White House spokesman Kush Desai said that while working towards a deal with Iran to resolve “temporary” energy market problems, the administration “has never lost focus on implementing the president’s affordability and growth agenda.”
“President Trump can walk and chew gum at the same time,” he said.
