The world faces a 50 per cent chance of warming of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels – if only briefly – by 2026, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted.
That does not mean the world would be crossing the long-term warming threshold of 1.5 degrees, which scientists have set as the ceiling for avoiding catastrophic climate change. But a year of warming at 1.5 degrees could offer a taste of what crossing that long-term threshold would be like including more extreme weather events.
The 1.5-degree global heating limit is set by international governments under the Paris Agreement. The study led by the UK Met Office shows that as recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years but this surged to 20 per cent in 2020 and 40 per cent in 2021 – the global average temperature was 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2021.
Projected warming in excess of 2 degrees this century is predicted by some studies based on current trends and global commitments to reduced greenhouse gases (GHGs).
It is also close to certain – 93 per cent – that by 2026 one year will be the hottest ever recorded, beating 2016, when a natural El Niño climate event supercharged temperatures. It is also near certain the average temperature of the next five years will be higher than the past five years, as the climate crisis intensifies.
“The 1.5 degree figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet,” said WMO head Prof Petteri Taalas, which published the new report.
“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise,” he added, “Alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme.”
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