An impending “super” El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank’s top climate expert told Reuters.
Forecasters are warning that the El Niño weather pattern — which often drives severe droughts, flooding and storms in Africa — could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue.
As well as the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also be undermined if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay the connected loans.
“Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1 per cent to 2 per cent on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent,” Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview.
The AfDB’s most recent forecasts in May predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2 per cent economic growth this year, rising to 4.4 per cent in 2027 assuming the US-Israeli war on Iran eases.
That, however, was before forecasts of a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño were made.
Nyong’s estimate of the likely $10 to $20 billion hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Niño. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate but warned it was unlikely to be a one-off either.
Drought conditions, which much of the Sahel region has been suffering from in recent years, may persist, while Mozambique’s experiences after Cyclone Idai in 2019 show it can take years to recover from major storms.
Governments were also getting snared in what Nyong described as the “climate finance trap”, where they lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education or infrastructure budgets to meet the costs.
