LONDON/MILAN — Europe has become the epicenter of the pandemic again, prompting some governments to consider re-imposing unpopular lockdowns in the run-up to Christmas and stirring debate over whether vaccines alone are enough to tame Covid-19.
Europe accounts for more than half of the average 7-day infections globally and about half of latest deaths, according to a Reuters tally, the highest levels since April last year when the virus first swept into Italy.
The fresh tumult comes as successful inoculation campaigns have plateaued ahead of the winter months and flu season.
About 65 per cent of the population of the European Economic Area (EEA) – which includes the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway – have received two doses, according to EU data, but the pace has slowed in recent months.
Take-up in southern European countries is around 80 per cent, but hesitancy has hampered rollout in central and eastern Europe and Russia, leading to outbreaks that could overwhelm healthcare.
Germany, France and the Netherlands are also experiencing a surge in infections, showing the challenge even for governments with high acceptance rates and dashing hopes vaccines would mean a return to close to normal.
To be sure, hospitalisations and deaths are much lower than a year ago and big variations by country in use of vaccines and boosters as well as measures like social distancing make it hard to draw conclusions for the whole region.
But a combination of low vaccine uptake in some parts, waning immunity among those inoculated early and complacency about masks and distancing as governments relaxed curbs over the summer are likely to blame, virologists and public health experts told Reuters.
“If there’s one thing to learn from this it’s not to take your eye off the ball,” said Lawrence Young, a virologist at the UK’s Warwick Medical School.
The World Health Organisation’s latest report for the week to November 7 showed that Europe, including Russia, was the only region to record a rise in cases, up 7 per cent, while other areas reported declines or stable trends.
Similarly, it reported a 10 per cent increase in deaths, while other regions reported declines.
The bleak outlook is sending shivers through companies and governments, anxious that the prolonged pandemic will derail a fragile economic recovery, particularly as transatlantic flights resumed this week and borders have started reopening.
In Germany, some cities are reported to have cancelled Christmas markets again, while the Netherlands could shut theatres and cinemas, scrap large events and close cafes and restaurants earlier.
Most EU countries are deploying extra shots to the elderly and those with weakened immune systems, but expanding it to more of the population and getting shots in teenagers’ arms should be a priority to avoid steps like lockdown, scientists said.
The EU’s medicines regulator is evaluating the use of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine in 5 to 11-year-olds. The data justifies the steps.
German figures for the week to October 31 show that while highest caseloads are among relatively young people, those over the age of 60 account for the majority of hospitalisations.
The rate of hospitalisation for unvaccinated over-60s is also considerably higher than those inoculated.
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