The Gaza-based Hamas group wants to project power. It wants to say it cannot be overlooked and will continue to matter as far as post-war Gaza governance is concerned.
Herein lurks the danger.
The hundreds of masked Hamas fighters who popped up fully-armed, as if from nowhere, during the handover of the first two batches of Israeli hostages on January 19 and 25, wanted to show that their group was still powerful, in control and intact, even after 15 months of Israeli attacks on Gaza.
Whether Hamas has succeeded in making up for the fighters it lost in those attacks is possible, especially with some reports referring to the ability of the group to recruit between 10,000 and 15,000 new fighters within its ranks in the past few months.
The hostages in Hamas’ custody are its last card. Gaza is its last bastion. This means that the Islamist group will not let go of either easily. It will fight for both to the last breath.
Losing Gaza’s rule is for Hamas a death sentence. By the same token, letting go of all the hostages without guarantees that Israel will stop its war altogether, withdraw from Gaza and allow Hamas to remain in power or at least co-rule Gaza will mean the devastation of the group.
This is why Hamas will do everything possible in the coming period, before the end of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, to din it into everybody that it is an integral part of any future plans for Gaza.
This puts Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a double whammy. In a way, the Israeli premier, who had promised to eradicate the Gaza-ruling group, does not want the same group to return to Gaza’s rule, knowing that, with Hamas in power, the group can rebuild itself and repeat the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israeli towns. This will be embarrassing to him.
In another, continued Hamas presence in Gaza will give Netanyahu the chance to keep the war rhetoric alive, which will satisfy his far-right coalition partners.
The same presence will fulfil one of Netanyahu’s other important goals: preventing the Palestinian Authority (PA) from extending its administrative control to the Gaza Strip.
PA rule of Gaza will be a step forward on the road to establishing a Palestinian state, as some Arab states, including Egypt, hope.
The aspired state will include the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
However, this is a prospect Netanyahu and the leaders of Hamas will likely team up to obliterate in the coming period.
Each of the two sides wants to show US President Donald Trump that it is honouring the terms of the ceasefire deal which came into effect on January 19 to the letter, even as each of them hopes the other will err first to justify its torpedoing of the ceasefire deal altogether.
This is why the international community must watch closely.
Ceasefire mediators and guarantors Egypt, the US and Qatar have done whatever they could to make this aspired ceasefire a reality.
They should not allow this pause in hostilities in Gaza easily evaporate, otherwise we will be witnessing a level of violence in Gaza that makes the past 15 months of fight seem like a picnic.
Amr Emam is the Managing Editor of The Egyptian Gazette.
