By Fred Gao
On Chinese internet, there’s a popular saying that the world is just a stage of clowns in different makeup. This metaphor suggests that despite appearances of order and systems, human civilization is actually quite improvisational, disorganized, and held together through ad hoc solutions rather than careful planning.
Trump’s latest round of tariffs against the world provides a perfect illustration of this concept—but with the United States, not the world, playing the role of the lead clown. When calculating the new tariff rates, his administration didn’t conduct serious economic analysis or research appropriate levels. Instead, they simply divided America’s trade deficit with a country by the total imports from that country, then multiplied by 0.5. For countries with which the US has a trade surplus, Trump imposed a uniform 10% tariff across all imports. This calculation is so elementary that any high school student in China could perform it.
This simplistic tariff formula reveals that the trade policy of the world’s largest economy can be reduced to such a basic mathematical formula is itself shocking. When the American president describes such a consequential economic decision as a “Liberation Day,” he demonstrates not economic wisdom but political theatrics.
When the Trump administration approaches what it views as a “Liberation Day” with such a perfunctory attitude, how can nations worldwide expect the United States to give more thoughtful consideration to its allies? Countries with longstanding economic and political ties to Washington are shocked to find themselves on the front lines of America’s tariff war. The European Union faces a 20% tariff, while Japan, America’s ally in the Asia-Pacific region, faces an even steeper 24%. Clearly, American decision-making is increasingly driven by short-term domestic electoral interests rather than international economic principles.
China has long abandoned its illusions about the United States and has prepared extensively for the trade conflicts of his second term. By late 2024, China had already accelerated exports to the US before Trump took office. Facing new tariffs, China’s response has become increasingly rational and systematic. After the February tariff increases, China strengthened export controls on critical minerals, implemented retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural machinery, crude oil, and large-displacement vehicles, and added certain American defense companies to its unreliable entity list mechanism—without imposing sanctions, thus preserving space for subsequent negotiations.
Facing America’s tariff pressure, the European Union has also changed its previous stance. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the rare statement that the European Union was prepared to respond with countermeasures if talks with Washington failed. France, as one of Europe’s top economic engines, also declared its readiness for this trade war. For now, we don’t know how long Europe is willing to stand up, but at least it’s a beginning of change.
The haphazard nature of American tariff policy reveals a deeper governance crisis. How can a global power adopt such a simplified approach to such important economic decisions? This phenomenon is not merely a reflection of Trump’s personal style but indicates a more widespread dysfunction in the American political system.
As countries around the world begin to adapt to and counter this clownish approach to global economics, the international economic and political order is quietly being reorganized. The United States may soon discover that when a major power treats global economic relationships with such a thoughtless attitude, the loss of its dominant position becomes inevitable.
Fred Gao is the founder of newsletter Inside China, he is also a reporter for CGTN Radio
