Eriny Saied
In a preliminary assessment of the escalating confrontation between Iran and the United States-Israel alliance, the ongoing conflict continues to yield catastrophic implications for both the Middle East and the broader global order. The “Israeli factor” remains a primary motivator, significantly influencing US policy and shaping the current trajectory of hostilities.
As is traditional, Egypt is playing a decisive role in seeking a diplomatic solution that maintains a delicate balance between the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries and Iran. While Cairo remains firm in condemning Iranian attacks against Gulf territories and maintains a clear stance of solidarity with its Arab brothers, it simultaneously pursues a policy of de-escalation. This commitment is evidenced by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s consistent communication with Gulf leaders following strikes on American assets and regional infrastructure.
Egypt’s management of this complex crisis reflects several key indicators of the Realist School of international relations. Cairo recognises that this critical period may reshape the regional and global system; consequently, its policy is guided by several core realist tenets: the fundamental anarchy of international politics; the role of sovereign states as principal actors; the pursuit of national interest by rational, unitary actors; and the prioritisation of national security and survival. Under this framework, national capabilities serve as the ultimate litmus test for interstate relationships.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point, the “cornerstone” of the conflict. With approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil passing through this maritime artery, Tehran utilises its dominance over the Strait as a strategic tool. By threatening global economic stability through increased vessel risk and insurance costs, Iran exerts significant geopolitical and demographic pressure on the international community.
While the US administration appears to face challenges in strategic planning, its stated objectives in Tehran include toppling the current administration and eliminating its missile and nuclear programmes. These goals are viewed as essential for regional stability by US allies, including Israel and certain European nations.
Conversely, Tehran seeks to impose a high cost on Washington and its partners. By targeting energy infrastructure and economic sectors in the Gulf, Iran attempts to exploit the close ties between the US and Gulf leadership. Despite occasional diplomatic overtures, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian’s apologies to neighbouring countries, Tehran has continued military strikes targeting Gulf territories and American forces.
The threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, the persistence of retaliatory campaigns, and intensive – strikes on oil infrastructure have created profound global disruptions. Although US and Israeli strikes remain the most potent military actions, they have yet to yield a definitive victory for either side.
In this context, Geopolitical Theory explains the desire of international actors to expand their influence a behaviour observed across various global powers. While it remains difficult for Egypt to sustain its mediation efforts amid such volatile circumstances, these diplomatic paths remain the only viable foundation for a long-term solution.
Dr Eriny Saied Academic and political analys
