By Mohssen Arishie
South Korea has not been spared by the Middle East energy crisis. That would be the wrong conclusion to draw. A country that imports roughly 94 per cent of its energy and relies heavily on crude routes through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be immune to war risk. Freight costs rise. Transport inflation bites. The won comes under pressure. Certain export channels, including used-car shipments via Dubai, suffer real disruption.
Yet, the more significant point lies elsewhere: Korea is absorbing the shock without sacrificing macroeconomic stability.
The evidence can be found in two areas. First, growth expectations have proved remarkably resilient. Although the OECD trimmed its outlook slightly, the IMF maintained its forecast for South Korea’s economic growth at 1.9 per cent. This contrasts with a broader deterioration in the global outlook. In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth from 3.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent, while projections for the euro area were revised down from 1.3 per cent to 1.1 per cent. Germany and Britain experienced particularly sharp downgrades, with expected growth falling to 0.8 per cent in both cases.
Second, external demand has strengthened at precisely the moment when many had anticipated weakness. In May, exports climbed to a record $87.75 billion, up 53.2 per cent from a year earlier. Semiconductor exports reached an unprecedented monthly high of $37.17 billion, underlining the sector’s continued importance to the economy. Kim Jung-kwan, Korea’s trade minister, has suggested that annual exports could surpass $900 billion this year, raising the prospect of overtaking Japan and joining the world’s five largest exporting nations.
This is what economic resilience looks like in practice. It does not imply the absence of stress. Rather, it reflects the ability to maintain stability while operating under pressure.
Korea’s policy has played an important role. US crude substitution, targeted subsidies, supplementary fiscal spending and naval support for rerouted shipping are not dramatic measures. They are practical safeguards designed to cushion the impact of external shocks. More importantly, they provide time for deeper structural adjustments already under way: broader energy diversification, faster investment in nuclear power and renewable energy, and supply chains that are less vulnerable to a single maritime chokepoint.
Korea’s fiscal position also remains comparatively sound. According to IMF estimates released on April 14, general government debt is projected to amount to 54.4 per cent of GDP this year – well below the G20 average of 118.9 per cent and the G7 average of 123.7 per cent. Such figures provide policymakers with valuable room for manoeuvre should external conditions deteriorate further.
Investor sentiment has likewise remained favourable. Goldman Sachs has described Korea as Asia’s most compelling investment destination and has raised its target for the KOSPI index from 8,000 to 9,000.
The Middle East crisis has exposed South Korea’s vulnerabilities. But it has also shown that vulnerability is not the same as fragility. Korea bends under pressure. It has not broken.
