The World Bank’s food commodity price index edged down in April, extending the two percent decline in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.
Over the first four months of the year, food prices fell by four percent compared to the same period in 2024. The decline was led by an eight per cent fall in grain prices driven by improved production prospects in major exporting countries, according to the World Bank (WB).
“Weaker prices for oils and meals, along with a roughly three percent decline in other food categories, also contributed to the overall decline. Persistent concerns about the impact of trade tensions on global demand have added further downward pressure on prices, reinforcing the softening trend,” said a WB report, a copy of which was obtained by The Egyptian Gazette.
The report forecasted that global grain supplies are set to hit record levels in 2025-26. Global grain supplies are projected to reach a record 3.6 billion tons in the 2025-26 season, marking a third consecutive year of growth, though at a slower pace than the average annual growth of the preceding two decades.
“Wheat supply has returned to its long-term average growth rate, while maize supply has rebounded after recent setbacks but remains below its historical trend. In contrast, supplies of rice and soybeans are projected to grow at about their long-term growth averages, building on last season’s significantly elevated levels,” it said.
Moreover, soybean oil drives growth in the global edible oil supply. Global edible oil supply is expected to rise by five percent in the 2025-26 crop year, marking the fourth consecutive year of expansion and outpacing the long-term trend.
This growth is largely driven by record-high soybean production, which is boosting soybean oil output. In contrast, the combined supply of other major oils—including sunflower seed, rapeseed, and coconut oil — declined in 2024-25 and is expected to recover in 2025-26, though by less than the historical average. As a result, the market’s reliance on soybean oil is likely to persist into 2026, with only a partial rebound in alternative oil sources.
