Consequential eventualities

‏War in Gaza; presidential vote; reconciliation with Iran and Türkiye, and Blue Nile dam to shape Egypt’s policies in 2024

‏The war in Gaza; the results of the presidential vote; a fledgling détente with regional powerhouses Turkey and Iran, and the failure of talks over Ethiopia’s Blue Nile dam are major events that happened in 2023, but ones that may cast their shadow over Egypt’s policies and political life in 2024.

‏Ending the war in Gaza

‏The war in Gaza has deeply affected Egypt, raging on only kilometres away from Egypt’s north-eastern border and very close to the Sinai Peninsula.

‏Apart from negatively affecting tourist inflows to the region, including to Egypt, the war also threatens to impact revenues to the Suez Canal, especially with the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen staging attacks against some ships traversing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the road to the Red Sea.

‏Egypt worked hard since the beginning of the war to bring about a suspension of hostilities between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

‏As 2023 drew to a close, Egypt tried to get Gaza-based factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, to agree to a hostage swap deal with Israel on the road to reaching a permanent ceasefire and then a settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

‏Egyptian efforts for ending animosities between Gaza’s factions, ending the conflict and settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are expected to continue all through 2024, especially with Egypt considering what is happening in Gaza and the Palestinian territories, in general, as a national security issue.

‏Sisi wins new term in office

‏The presidential election, which was held inside Egypt over three days as of December 10, are expected to overshadow Egypt’s political life all through 2024 and beyond it.

‏The election bore witness to some progress in Egypt’s political life, including a significant rise in voter participation.

‏Over 66% of eligible voters participated in the election, with the majority of these voters voting for Abdel Fattah El Sisi, giving the incumbent Egyptian leader a third term in the office of president.

‏Apart from ensuring a continuation of Sisi’s leadership style, one that is propelling Egypt into economic, political and military strengths, the results of the election are also expected to affect all subsequent elections, whether in 2024 or beyond it. ‏Egypt expects to hold its municipal council elections sometime in 2024 or 2025. It also expects to hold its House of Deputies’ elections in 2025.

‏The buzz the high voter turnout in the presidential election created is also expected to affect these aforementioned elections, all proving marked progress in Egypt’s political life.

‏Old foes becoming today’s friends

‏Reconciliation efforts between Egypt, on one hand, and Iran and Türkiye, on the other, gained renewed momentum in 2024 and are expected to affect the course of events in 2024.

‏Egypt’s rapprochement with these regional heavyweights comes hard on the heels of changing geostrategic conditions in the region.

‏During 2023, President Sisi held talks with the Iranian and Turkish leaders several times, including over the phone, reflecting growing coordination with Istanbul and Tehran and Cairo’s readiness to allow for improved relations with these two regional capitals.

‏Coordination with the two capitals is expected to gain more momentum during 2024. Some observers even expect Egypt to take more steps in its reconciliation with Türkiye and Iran in this year, including by forging closer economic cooperation with them.

‏Nile dam talks fall flat

‏The failure of negotiations between Egypt and Sudan, on one hand, and Ethiopia, on the other, over the Ethiopian Blue Nile dam on December 19 was quite expected in Egypt, given Ethiopia’s procrastination in taking Egypt’s and Sudan’s concerns over the dam in the past 12 years seriously.

‏Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, Hani Sweillam, has warned against unilateral measures that harm Egypt’s water security.

‏The minister was copying warnings by President Sisi in March 2021 against depriving Egypt of its annual Nile River share.

‏In making the fourth filling of its Blue Nile dam, Ethiopia held around 26 billion cubic metres of water back from Egypt’s annual share of 55.5 billion cubic metres, according to Minister Sweillam.

‏Egypt has not stipulated the course of action it may take to protect its Nile River water share in the coming months.

‏However, all indications attest to Egypt’s determination to protect this share by all means and Egyptian action in this regard is expected to transpire during 2024.