Execution speed will decide which LNG investments actually deliver returns, writes Khaled Salah, Vice President – Africa, AVEVA
A new LNG investment cycle is gathering momentum – but the window for success is narrow, and only the fastest players will come out on top.
This acceleration is being driven by global shifts in energy security. In a world beset by supply chain volatility and shifting geopolitics, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has emerged as a critical energy source – helping to buffer supply shocks while enabling decarbonization by displacing coal and other carbon-intensive fuels.
Recent instability near the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly 20% of global oil and significant LNG volumes flow – only highlighted this vulnerability. Freight rates surged more than 50% month-on-month following regional disruptions, exposing the fragility of traditional energy infrastructure and sending cost shocks through price-sensitive economies.
The US now leads the world in LNG exports, followed by Australia and Qatar, together supplying around 60% of the global market. US liquefaction capacity is expected to reach over 16 billion cubic feet per day by 2026. Since 2019, the US has accounted for more than half of all global LNG liquefaction final investment decisions (FIDs), with Qatar contributing close to 20%.
Across the industry, LNG expansion is attracting more than $90 billion in capital as operators clamber to bring new supply online. FIDs are picking up and a surge of liquefaction capacity is scheduled to hit the market between 2026 and 2028.
But the LNG game is as much about timing as it is volume. “Getting to first cargo as fast as possible is critical – that’s when revenue starts,” is a sentiment echoed across the sector.
Speed equals value
In LNG, time really is money. A modern liquefaction facility can easily cost $30-40 billion and take three to five years to build. Once operational, every week of delay can cost tens of millions of dollars.
Shareholders and boards understand this. Yet, despite decades of experience delivering megaprojects, schedule overruns remain the norm.
Projects face headwinds from equipment lead times, skilled labor availability, and regulatory processes – factors largely outside operators’ direct control. But execution risk also stems from how projects are managed internally.
More often than not, controllable delays arise in how engineering, construction, and operations teams work together.
Where projects fail – and how digital infrastructure fixes it
The weakest link in LNG often hides in the seams between departments – particularly between engineering, procurement, construction (EPC) and operations.
Today’s LNG build-out remains heavily EPC-driven. Yet mismatched engineering data, siloed asset information and missing operational context routinely force teams to spend months reconciling information instead of ramping up production. This type of scenario routinely results in rework, delayed stabilization, and lost value.
But in today’s tense race to first gas, these inefficiencies are no longer viable. To compete in a compressed market window, operators are turning to unified data platforms and digital twins as core execution infrastructure.
Operators are creating a ‘single source of truth’, which spans design, construction and operations. Engineering models, asset frameworks and live operational data are connected from the outset, enabling teams to collaborate against the same information throughout the project lifecycle.
The approach changes outcomes in practical ways. Design decisions are informed by operational context. Construction progress feeds directly into commissioning readiness. Operations teams gain assets with structured data, validated models and real-time visibility – not dusty binders and spreadsheets.
Digitization in action
Brazil’s AP Consultoria e Projetos offers an example of how execution speed can be structurally improved. The multidisciplinary EPC firm adopted unified engineering platforms to tackle execution bottlenecks that routinely hamper capital projects.
Like many EPCs, it faced fragmented data, poor visibility across disciplines, slow design iterations and lengthy handovers – all of which dragged delivery times.
By moving engineering workflows to the cloud, AP Consultoria created a single, shared data environment where civil, mechanical, piping and instrumentation teams could work in parallel rather than sequentially.
This real-time collaboration reduced miscommunication and allowed downstream disciplines to start work earlier – directly shortening overall project timelines.
The introduction of AI and machine learning into complex design tasks also had direct impact on speed to market. Pipe support design was automated using AI models trained on historical engineering expertise. This cut pipe support analysis time by 90% and reduced stress analysis review time by 60%, removing a major source of delays.
Faster documentation, fewer design revisions and less rework meant projects progressed more smoothly from design through construction readiness.
AP Consultoria was able to deliver projects to clients faster, enabling earlier commissioning, earlier revenue and stronger commercial outcomes.
A narrowing window
The LNG sector is entering a critical decade with billions of dollars at stake.
With major capacity coming online simultaneously in the next two years, there is a finite opportunity for fast-moving companies to be rewarded with long-term contracts and premium pricing.
Companies that treat digital as core infrastructure – on par with physical plant and equipment – will move faster and protect shareholder value. In this unique environment, speed to first cargo makes all the difference between monetizing capital – and putting it at risk.
