LONDON – Once again, it is the world’s poor who risk becoming collateral damage. As war thunders on in Ukraine, the most deprived people in the Middle East, central Asia and much of Africa will get caught in the crossfire as the price of food escalates and its availability dwindles, said The Financial Times.
In 2021, almost 700mn people, or 9 percent of the world’s population — nearly two-thirds of them in sub-Saharan Africa — lived on below dlrs 1.90 a day, the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Any substantial rise in food prices could send millions more tumbling back into this category.
A report by Standard & Poor’s predicts the food crisis will last through 2024 and possibly beyond. It warns that it could affect social stability, economic growth and sovereign ratings. The International Rescue Committee has alerted the world to an impending “hunger fallout” in which 47mn more people — mostly in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, Afghanistan and Yemen — could be pushed into acute hunger.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries were, either separately or as a pair, among the top three exporters of wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil. Together they accounted for 12 percent of all traded food calories.
Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer. Rising energy costs are affecting everything.
In Ghana, inflation is nudging 25 percent, eating away at purchasing power. In Nigeria, the central bank surprised markets by raising rates a hefty 150 basis points.
This week, Kenya increased interest rates for the first time in almost seven years, citing supply chain disruption and rising commodity prices.
Leaders sense the urgency. This week, Macky Sall, president of Senegal and chair of the African Union, announced he was travelling to Moscow. There, presumably, he will petition Vladimir Putin on the consequences of Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea port of Odesa, which is preventing 20mn tons of wheat from leaving Ukraine. Good luck with that.
In the longer run, many countries — particularly in Africa, where urban populations are rising quickest — need to think harder about food security. The 2003 Maputo Declaration committed African heads of state to devote at least 10 percent of budgetary allocations to agriculture. Few have come close.
Instead of lending serious effort to raising domestic yields, too many governments have sought to placate restless urban populations with food imports. Africa is the fastest-growing consumer of wheat even though, outside a few countries including Kenya and South Africa, little is grown on the continent.
Crops that are produced locally need more attention. The widespread use of teff, an ancient Ethiopian grain, in the Horn of Africa is a good example. Other crops that could be eaten more widely include cassava, grown in west and central Africa, which can be made into bread.
Governments also need to combat soil erosion and reconsider genetically modified crops.
As well as food, too many countries are dependent on fertilizer imports. In Africa, Morocco is one of the few big producers. Countries with big gas reserves, including Mozambique, Tanzania, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Mauritania, should be developing a domestic fertilizer industry as a priority.
Governments are right to worry about their hungry urban populations. The solution is to pay more attention to their farmers.
