Oil prices are expected to rise further this year as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthis threaten oil flows and heighten supply risks, a Reuters poll showed.
The July survey of 31 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $85.22 a barrel in 2026, up from June’s forecast of $84.50.
US crude is projected to average $80.14 a barrel, compared with June’s estimate of $79.49. The benchmarks have averaged $87.03 and $82.41 respectively year-to-date.
“The key support remains the geopolitical risk premium associated with the Iran conflict, which is likely to persist through the second half of the year and keep volatility elevated,” said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller.
The US-Iran conflict begun in late February has sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried about a fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies, disrupting Middle East output running into millions of barrels a day.
Back-and-forth attacks in recent days have ended a brief pause in the fighting between the two countries.
Additionally, the Houthis in Yemen have disrupted shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, creating a second chokepoint for oil flows.
