Facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians, President Vladimir Putin appears ready to try to change the narrative around the conflict.
He looks likely to sharply escalate the Russian aerial attacks on the Ukrainian capital in the hope it will shore up his sagging domestic approval ratings and persuade an increasingly pessimistic audience at home that Moscow is winning the war, now in its fifth year.
Russia’s warning to carry out “consistent and systematic” missile strikes on Kyiv, accompanied by a call for evacuating foreign embassies from the capital, signals Putin’s intention to expand Russia’s barrage despite the heavy costs and potential international outrage.
Massive drills of Russia’s nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of belligerent statements from Moscow warning Kyiv’s European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks have underlined Putin’s intention to up the ante.
After a series of gains last year, Russia’s advances along the over 1,000-kilometre (600-mile) front line have ground to a near halt recently, and Ukraine’s armed forces have launched successful counterstrikes and reclaimed some ground.
“The character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis.
“Russian forces’ rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare.”
