The US and Israel are locked into a longer-than-expected war that may extend through April before Iran’s military is sufficiently neutered to begin shifting toward a “defensive” posture and reopening oil and gas flows to a world thirsting for cheaper energy, military and energy analysts said.
With or without a ceasefire agreement and likely short of regime change, the main military objective is to stay the course until Iran is exhausted of much of its remaining missile, drone, and fast-boat inventories, meaning it can no longer effectively block tankers from the critical Strait of Hormuz choke point, they said.
President Donald Trump hinted at it on Friday, when he posted on social media that he is considering “winding down” military operations in the Mideast, saying the U.S. is near its objectives of degrading Iran’s missile capability, defense industrial base, armed forces, and nuclear programme.
The war has caused oil prices to surge about 75% since the beginning of the year, threatening inflationary spikes worldwide and regional energy shortages. The campaign has already cost the US many billions of dollars, and the Pentagon has request $200 billion more.
Much of the Iranian leadership is killed and many of its military supply chains are decimated. But that hasn’t stopped Israel from escalating matters by targeting Iran’s domestic power supplies through its South Pars gas field—an action Trump criticized, asking Israel to stop hitting oil and gas production—or Iran responding by attacking the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors, most notably Qatar’s liquefied natural gas facilities.
So what’s the end game now that the war has concluded its third week? After all, the conflict is almost certainly extending beyond the initial four weeks that Trump cited. And limited operations for US boots on the ground remain on the table, whether to seize nuclear sites or Iran’s oil-exporting hub, Kharg Island.
“You can leave the regime intact but, if it is neutralized militarily, President Trump could claim that the Iranian military does not pose a threat to shipping through the strait. That would certainly be an important victory,” said Thierry Wizman, a top economic strategist for the Macquarie Group.
The US is currently targeting Iranian fast-attack vessels and drones near the strait, relying on A-10 Warthog fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters.
“If the US claims victory and there is no formal surrender, and then you have an attack by Iran on a [tanker] vessel, then that would look very bad for the US,” Wizman said, warning of a too-early “mission accomplished” celebration. “It really must be airtight. That’s why, in the absence of a formal agreement, this can last a long, long time because you have to basically get everything that’s out there.”
But an end is within reach, even if the timeline is extended an extra month or so, said Richard Goldberg, senior advisor for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies neoconservative think tank.
