By Ahmed Salam
As the international order undergoes profound transformation and with the end of 2025, Taiwan has re-emerged as one of the most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints in East Asia. The issue is no longer framed solely as a Chinese internal matter, but increasingly as a central pillar of a broader American strategy to contain China’s rise and reshape the global balance of power.
In December, the United States announced a new arms package for Taiwan worth approximately $11.1 billion, marking the second major deal during President Donald Trump’s second term, following a $330 million agreement in November. The speed and scale of these transactions signal a qualitative shift in Washington’s approach towards the island.
This latest package, which includes advanced missile systems, anti-tank weapons, howitzers, and drones cannot be viewed as a routine arms sale. Rather, it represents a strategic message aimed at recalibrating the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait and the wider Indo-Pacific. It reinforces Washington’s commitment to Taiwan in direct defiance of Beijing’s stance, which views any foreign military co-operation with the island as interference in its internal affairs and a threat to regional stability.
The United States increasingly treats Taiwan as a cornerstone of its broader containment strategy against China, relying on a network of Asian alliances and an expanded military footprint, even at the expense of established international understandings. This trajectory raises serious concerns about its implications for an international system founded on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
From a historical and legal perspective, Taiwan’s return to China was an outcome of World War II and a key component of the post-1945 international settlement. The “One China” principle has since gained broad international recognition, becoming a cornerstone of United Nations legitimacy and global stability. Undermining this principle does not merely challenge Chinese sovereignty; it sets a dangerous precedent for how territorial disputes worldwide may be handled.
Analytically, the recent arms deal suggests that US policy has moved beyond maintaining a defensive balance towards actively reshaping the strategic equation by enhancing Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities. This reflects Washington’s growing reliance on advanced military tools as strategic leverage, a shift that significantly heightens tensions in the Strait.
In response, China has intensified its military and diplomatic signaling. Large-scale exercises and the deployment of naval and air assets around Taiwan send an unequivocal message: external escalation crosses Beijing’s “red lines” and strikes at the core of its national security. Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that Taiwan is inseparable from China’s sovereignty and that all necessary measures will be taken to safeguard territorial integrity.
On the international stage, Russia has emerged as an influential factor. In late December 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow’s position that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, rejecting any form of independence and framing the issue as a purely internal Chinese matter. This stance reflects growing Sino-Russian strategic convergence amid intensifying competition with the United States.
China’s response has extended beyond diplomacy to visible military reinforcement, using large-scale drills to project deterrence and maintain high readiness. These actions underscore Beijing’s use of military power as a tool for managing strategic balance, not merely defence.
The Arab position and Egypt
Within the Arab world, China’s 2016 Policy Paper on Arab Countries remains a key reference, emphasising co-operation based on mutual respect and non-interference while commending Arab support for the “One China” principle. Egypt’s position aligns firmly with these principles, reflecting the foundations of its foreign policy.
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has repeatedly affirmed Egypt’s commitment to the “One China” principle, most recently echoed by Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Aati in discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, where Egypt reiterated its rejection of external interference in China’s internal affairs.
2026: Open scenarios
As US-China rivalry intensifies, Taiwan is expected to remain a focal point of tension throughout 2026. Potential scenarios include continued US arms sales, Washington’s use of Taiwan as strategic leverage, intensified Chinese military maneouvers, deeper Sino-Russian coordination, and more clearly defined Arab positions grounded in international legitimacy.
Ultimately, Taiwan represents a critical test of the international system’s credibility and the ability of major powers to manage rivalry without sliding into Cold War-style confrontation. Preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait requires dialogue, restraint, and respect for established international principles, not the militarisation of crisis.
• Ahmed Salam is a member of the Egyptian council for foreign affairs, former Egyptian media counselor in Beijing
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