CAIRO – The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said the current global trade trends have turned positive, with goods trade increasing by around 1 percent quarter over quarter (QoQ ) in Q1 2024. Services trade grew at approximately 1.5 per cent QoQ.
The UNCTAD nowcast predicts a stronger positive trend for Q2 2024, projecting an approximate 2 percent increase for the first half of 2024.
This increase is expected to add around $ 250 billion to goods trade and about $ 100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023. If positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $ 32 trillion,
yet it is unlikely to surpass its record level seen in 2022, according to UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Update.
The cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) was interested in analyzing the report which has to do with global economy.
Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during the first quarter of 2024.
In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports.
The report highlights that trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and artificial intelligence-related products experiencing stronger increases.
Trade inflation turns positive, but remains below 2 percent in first half of 2024.
Despite these positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is tempered by potential geopolitical issues and industrial policy impacts.
The report says that geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies could reshape global trade patterns.
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